The Observer Newspapers | Trouble Ahead for County Budget

April 17, 2008

Trouble Ahead for County Budget

The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors dodged a bullet this week as it approved a $3.3 billion budget plan that increased the residential property tax rate by 3 cents.

The move protected the county for the time being from slumping home value assessments that have put the brakes on cash flowing into the county coffers. Even with the small tax increase, the average homeowner's tax bill is expected to drop by about $6.

But home values, which make up a large portion of the county's tax base, are expected to fall as much as 10 percent more in the coming year, leaving a huge black cloud on the horizon as next year's budget approaches.

Under the current projections for tax revenue next year, the county will find it difficult if not impossible to maintain the existing level of service. County officials have already started the process of directing staff to find ways to cut back on resources and funding.

The board was lucky that this year's revenue shortfall was small enough to handle, while other counties such as Prince William had to enact a 21-cent increase in the tax rate and sharply slash spending to make ends meet.

Let the warning be sounded for citizens and supervisors: Start planning now for large-scale cuts in resources and spending that may come our way early in 2009.

And don't expect the state to be coming to the rescue. With the transportation plan in shambles, the General Assembly will have its hands full finding the money to pay for its own priorities.