The Observer Newspapers |

July 4, 2008

Stop The Delusion About Oil

The national news media this week reported that Iraq is taking the first steps to open up its oil fields to major development and production. Some experts predict that if Iraq handles its oil production correctly, the nation could become the next Saudi Arabia because of its vast deposits of "black gold."

We're all transfixed on what the Middle East will do because of our own dependence on oil to run our fuel-heavy society and because of the recent skyrocketing gasoline prices. But America's focus on oil as a resource is just another way of deluding ourselves into a false sense of security.

For the past 100 years, America has been able to maintain easy and cheap access to the foreign oil it so urgently needs, with the exception of the political crises that intensified the energy shortage of the 1970s. We have been able to produce oil on American soil and preserve the political connections we need to keep a constant supply of oil coming to our shores.

All this work has allowed us to live a sheltered life, one in which we believe we are the world's ultimate political and military power. In fact, it is the nations with the oil that have the power, and that power will intensify as that resource becomes more scarce over the next 50 years.

China and India are the world's largest emerging economies, and as such their appetite for oil is rapidly outpacing that of America. They are becoming the world's biggest consumers of oil, which means America's clout as OPEC's biggest customer stands to be greatly reduced in future years.

What interests me most about America's relationship with oil is that everybody seems to be in denial that our dependence on oil and our ability to satisfy our needs with oil will ever change. We all have this attitude that we will always be able to get gas for our cars, so there's no strong incentive to make any changes in our lives.

In truth, oil will become more scarce in the next 50 or 100 years, and as those resources become harder to get, the global political landscape will change. Who will have the upper hand? It's unlikely to be the clients.

And we're not just talking about money. Imagine a world in which the United States has to make serious political concessions to OPEC nations to ensure we have the oil we need to keep our lucrative and luxurious society moving ahead. Imagine a world in which we are vulnerable to the political whims of other nations.

All they have to do is turn off the tap and send all that oil bound for America to China. That's a serious change in the global political landscape.

However, these pressures are not likely to become severe for decades yet. We have time to get ahead of the problem. How? By making oil irrelevant.

Scientists all over the world are looking at many different ways of producing energy, from wind energy and nuclear energy generation to solar energy and uses for other chemical components, such as hydrogen and natural gas, in fueling our vehicles.

What's important is not just that we look at how we can keep our gas at less than $3 a gallon. We need to find an energy source that rivals the convenience and versatility of oil, so that we can stand above the fray, and in a position of leadership, while the rest of the world struggles with the decline of oil.

It can be done. There are solutions out there. But we can't delude ourselves anymore into believing oil is anything more than a crutch, a temporary fix. It's time for us to develop a more permanent, stable energy plan for America.